Usyk Fury 2 Preview – Two Titans v Father Time

On Saturday night the two best heavyweights in the world meet again seven months after their first meeting. It was an epic fight that I am convinced will age superbly.

Oleksandr Usyk deservedly walked away with all the marbles and cemented his legacy as an all time great. The first man to hand Tyson Fury defeat, Usyk proved himself to be the ultimate competitor on a night which at the mid point of the bout looked like it would see Fury get his hand raised. As with all great fights there were ebbs and flows, with momentum swinging one way then the other. Usyk, who started the fight in really composed fashion, eventually emerged victorious despite having to withstand 4 or 5 rounds of Fury in a state of full flow.

In those middle rounds Fury landed shots to the body and head, maintaining control of distance and utilising his considerable reach advantage. Usyk’s legendary ability to maintain not only his form, his shape and his composure but also the poker face that means you never really know if a shot has hurt him was tested like never before. The early success and control Usyk enjoyed was a distant memory by that point and the Fury train had gathered so much momentum that even the most ardent Usyk admirer was starting to think this would be the night when Usyk met his match.

And yet despite being faced with a supremely gifted opponent over 30lb heavier, 5 inches taller and considered the best heavyweight in world boxing for a decade, Usyk found something.

Usyk the ultimate competitor

Whether it was the cross he kissed at the end of round 7, the inspiration and responsibility that carrying a war torn nation’s hopes and dreams on one man’s shoulders can elicit, or…for me most likely…the affirmation of your own powers that must have followed landing a near perfect left cross on the end of his opponent’s nose – he found what he needed.

With that one shot in the 8th round, everything changed.

Fury took half steps back towards the ropes rather than half steps forward to control the geography of the ring and whilst doing so, pawed at his damaged nose which immediately gave the world a vision of a man preparing for a crisis rather than a procession towards being crowned the undisputed king of heavyweight boxing.

What happened in round 9 remains the most memorable and most significant phase of the fight for most observers and understandably so, but it was what preceded it that stays with me – when one great champion rests momentum away from another, refusing to give up his record and his supremacy, and in doing so perhaps initiates the demise of that great champion.

Fury’s response in the championship rounds was predictable. Slowly gathering his senses and his legs to prove if anyone ever doubted it that his powers of recovery remain almost superhuman and in doing so probably winning at least one of those rounds.

But the damage was done as the scorecards confirmed. Even though I had just the one point in it, it felt like a clear and decisive victory for Usyk in a fight befitting of undisputed status in the sport’s most important weight class – it lived up to the hype and then some.

So what did we learn and what can we take from that first fight that helps us to predict the path ahead as the two prepare to do battle again in Riyadh on Saturday night?

Lessons from the first fight

Almost certainly we learned less about Usyk that we did about Fury. He remains the most complete fighter in the heavyweight division. His footwork, masterful shot selection and ability to throw hurtful combinations even when faced with a major deficit in height and reach, his timing and his constant pressure using feints, footwork and subtle adjustments….I could go on but it was all there for the world to see, even against such an awkward, sizeable and talented boxer. The timing of his left cross was probably the party piece that we’ll remember, but there was so much more to admire. As with all great boxers, the sum of a multitude of technical details shaped over a lifetime working at his craft away from the lights all came together on the biggest stage to form a truly masterful performance.

And his mindset, his strength of belief and determination…I’ve rarely seen evidence of such an iron will in any sporting arena. Total focus, total belief and utter refusal to cede the upper hand to his opponent…on the biggest stage. The epitome of a champion’s mentality. A very, very special champion.

But that wasn’t a surprise – he has won everything there is to win in a stellar career in both amateur and professional boxing, and he has always found a way to win when faced with challenges. He makes adjustments, demonstrates composure and poise under the most extreme scrutiny, and has overcome every obstacle in his way. Fury represented the biggest obstacle yet and perhaps there was some doubt over whether Usyk could pass this, potentially final test in his career…but pass it he did in the same impressive fashion we’ve seen throughout his career.

I only saw one thing in Usyk back in May that I hadn’t seen before, and it wasn’t in the ring. The image of the newly crowned undisputed champ almost slumped across the shoulders of his team members as he desperately tried to get back to the dressing room after leaving the ring will stay with me. He looked broken, exhausted…as if he truly had left a piece of himself in the ring.

At 37 years old, can Usyk muster a similarly superhuman effort again? On mindset alone, I wouldn’t back against him, but Father Time waits for no man and remains undefeated, the most feared opponent of all.

Of course the same can be said of Fury – at 36 and with miles on the clock sustained both in and outside the ring, recent years have indicated that his physical conditioning is waning. I’d go so far as to say his legs have gone.

No longer capable of either boxing on the backfoot for 12 rounds against the very best or taking hurtful shots later on in fights. He’ll always get back up such is his mentality but when your legs are not steady underneath you your chin doesn’t stand much of a chance at this, the very highest level of competition.

It's a complex matter to understand though, and we have to consider what happened in the Fury camp prior to that first fight. The cut that led to the first fight being postponed and subsequent lack of sparring for the rescheduled date was undoubtedly a factor. I’d expect Fury to have much better conditioning than we’ve seen in any of his fights since Wilder - he knows he needs everything to be in his favour to beat a truly great rival in Usyk ... no stone will have been left unturned. No boxer enters the ring 100% fit but there are no reasons we are aware of why Fury shouldn’t be in the best possible shape come Saturday night.

The incredibly sad news that his wife Paris had suffered a miscarriage and was not present at the fight in May as a result had to have been a factor too. Nobody will know the true impact such a sad and deeply personal matter had on Fury's mindset in the hours and days leading up to and indeed, during the fight.

So Fury probably has the most scope to improve and learn from the first fight. But how does he go about things second time around?

Tactics for the rematch

Usyk will not change and why would he. When Plan A is so good you don't need a Plan B. 

But Fury has two main options available to him.

He can box in a similar fashion to the way he approached the first fight - just stay switched on and be fit enough to box smart for longer than he did first time around. Be patient, perhaps start a little quicker, but look to control the centre of the ring. Be measured with his work from mid to long distance and try to keep Usyk at bay with the jab and the uppercut, whilst always remaining ready to adapt to Usyk’s attacks. Better work in the clinches and putting a little more weight on the back foot, in doing so evading shots before spinning out and resetting with the aim of re-establishing control of the centre of the ring. This approach requires fitness, concentration and discipline – clowning around might sometimes seem like it’s his way of staying focussed but he needs to focus on the man in front of him if he wants to box like this. As is always the case, even with that game plan, sooner or later a fight will break out and he’d still have to wear a few shots in exchanges.

But if his legs allow him to box this way, it's realistic to assume he can win 8 rounds boxing like that and that should be enough to win on points. And whilst many like myself doubt his legs and what’s left in the Fury tank, that approach could also slowly break down Usyk if the Ukrainian’s physical condition has deteriorated – which is probable rather than possible. So it's not beyond the realms of possibility it could result in a late stoppage if Fury can sustain a reasonably high volume of work, particularly to the body.

The alternative, as many experts and fans have called for, is for Fury to “put it on” Usyk and try to make it more of a shoot out designed to stop the Ukrainian. By combining heavy shots anywhere on the target area and using the extra weight to lean on Usyk, the theory is that he would stop his opponent well inside the distance. I don’t see Fury being able to maintain that kind of output for more than 6 or 7 rounds before major fatigue comes into play which would probably leave both fighters running on empty and walking in virtual quicksand. Even then, I could see Fury winning if it went that way.

But I don’t like this strategy.

Usyk is a master of timing his opponents, particularly as they tire a little and lose concentration in the middle rounds. Fury got caught with his guard down and his weight over the front foot in the first fight, and I think even when pressurising Usyk in an attempt to push him back onto the ropes, Usyk’s footwork and ability to adjust to counter would see Fury walk on to one just as he did in the 8^th round in May.

I don’t see this going 12 rounds, and I could see two great champions getting old very quickly in the second half of this fight if they are as evenly matched as they were first time around. Exhaustion may well in fact emerge as the most formidable opponent in that ring on Saturday.

In the battle of two iron wills, you’d perhaps give the edge just to Usyk by virtue of what he showed in that first fight but given Fury's legendary recuperative powers, we could see some Ward Gatti esque exchanges late on if both are still standing.

If Usyk wins, he'll surely consider walking away from the sport, safe in the knowledge he would be one of the sport’s all time greats and one of the top  heavyweights ever to lace them up.

A Fury victory would almost inevitably lead to the rubber match, depleted though both men would no doubt be by the time it came around. The clamour for a decider would be too much to resist.

Fury in defeat would have the option to cash in with what would undoubtedly be some show against Anthony Joshua. Fury in my mind could have beaten any heavyweight in history at his very best..an increasingly unpopular opinion though that is. Defeat to Usyk would leave him exposed to the modern day critics and his career remembered, at least for a while, more for the underwhelming period between Wilder and Usyk than the truly great achievements in victory against Klitschko and Wilder, and in defeat against Usyk.

Whatever the outcome on Saturday, the first fight, the promotion and the respective legacies of the two men mean this rivalry will go down alongside some of the most notable the sport has ever seen. Two generational heavyweight talents, two hugely influential characters inside and outside the ring.

The world will be watching on Saturday, but Father Time will no doubt have the best seat in the house.